Europe’s dependence on US foreign military sales: evidence for policy makers from a new database

Abstract

Public concerns about Europe’s dependence on the United States military industrial base have increased with the worsening security situation in Europe and the deterioration of the transatlantic relationship. With a new dataset covering all US Foreign Military Sales notifications since 2008, of Ukraine, increasing its reliance on US military equipment, we show that Europe has substantially increased its purchases from the US defence industrial base since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion. The dependence is particularly significant for specific high-tech equipment, including air defence, missiles and fighter jets, and for additional equipment and services included in purchases, such as advanced software and sustainment and modernisation required in future years. This strategic reliance on the US has provided benefits as weapons are effective. Yet, it creates significant dependencies. Even if the probability of the US using the dependence to its advantage was considered to be low, the high costs of security vulnerabilities provide the US with significant bargaining leverage over Europe in other policy areas such as trade. Moreover, the US military industrial base faces its own constraints and current and future US administrations might prioritise deliveries to Asia, which renders US suppliers more uncertain. We discuss the resulting policy trade-offs.