Climate change impact on photovoltaic power potential in South America

Abstract

This paper presents the first study of the long-term impact of climate change on photovoltaic potential in South America. This region has great potential for implementing renewable energy, mainly solar energy solutions, due to its high solar irradiance levels. Based on the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) for the South American region, we estimate how climate change could affect photovoltaic power potential by the end of the century. The evidence suggests that photovoltaic potential could have a maximum decrease of around 15%, and a maximum increase of approximately 7%, primarily due to changes in solar irradiance of different zones. Furthermore, it is observed that regions with increased temperature also show increased solar irradiance levels, which could, to some extent, compensate for the losses caused by the rise in temperature. Therefore, photovoltaic production in most of the territory will not be negatively affected.