Validation of breast cancer models for predicting the nonsentinel lymph node metastasis after a positive sentinel lymph node biopsy in a chinese population

Abstract

Objectives: Over the years, completion axillary lymph node dissection is recommended for the patients with breast cancer if sentinel lymph node metastasis is found. However, not all of these patients had nonsentinel lymph node metastasis on final histology. Some predicting models have been developed for calculating the risk of nonsentinel lymph node metastasis. The aim of our study was to validate some of the predicting models in a Chinese population. Method: Two hundred thirty-six patients with positive sentinel lymph node and complete axillary lymph node dissection were included. Patients were applied to 6 models for evaluation of the risk of nonsentinel lymph node involvement. The receiver–operating characteristic curves were shown in our study. The calculation of area under the curves and false negative rate was done for each model to assess the discriminative power of the models. Results: There are 105 (44.5%) patients who had metastatic nonsentinel lymph node(s) in our population. Primary tumor size, the number of metastatic sentinel lymph node, and the proportion of metastatic sentinel lymph nodes/total sentinel lymph nodes were identified as the independent predictors of nonsentinel lymph node metastasis. The Seoul National University Hospital and Louisville scoring system outperformed the others, with area under the curves of 0.706 and 0.702, respectively. The area under the curve values were 0.677, 0.673, 0.432, and 0.674 for the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, Tenon, Stanford, and Shanghai Cancer Hospital models, respectively. With adjusted cutoff points, the Louisville scoring system outperformed the others by classifying 26.51% of patients with breast cancer to the low-risk group. Conclusion: The Louisville and Seoul National University Hospital scoring system were found to be more predictive among the 6 models when applied to the Chinese patients with breast cancer in our database. Models developed at other institutions should be used cautiously for decision-making regarding complete axillary lymph node dissection after a positive biopsy in sentinel lymph node.