Assessing The Effects Of Climate Change On Agriculture Productivity Across Rwanda's Provinces And Kigali City

Abstract

Agriculture is crucial for global food security and economic stability, but it is increasingly threatened by climate change. This study examines the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity in Rwanda's provinces and Kigali city using data from 2003 to 2023. The analysis involved descriptive statistics, trend visualization, and statistical models like the Cobb-Douglas production function and Random Effects model. Findings reveal significant temperature and precipitation variability across regions, with notable warming in certain years and varying trends a cross provinces. Agricultural productivity was strongly influenced by land use, labor participation, and fertilizer consumption, which explained 87.7\% of the variation. The Random Effects model showed that temperature and precipitation also affected productivity, with temperature increases leading to small decreases in crop output. The study highlights the need for adaptive strategies to counter climate impacts, recommending sustainable land management, advanced agricultural training, and climate adaptation measures to ensure food security in Rwanda