Forecast of profits from oil production in Russia with regional features of the natural resource base

Abstract

One of the main difficulties in the formation and increase of revenues from hydrocarbon resources is the deterioration of the quality of the mineral resource base and changes in the geography of production. One can observe an increase in the depletion and water content of the fields, an increase in the proportion of highly viscous and high-sulfur oil; the share of stocks in hard-to-reach and infrastructural underdeveloped regions is growing. One of the tools for encouraging subsoil users to develop such resources is to ensure lower rates of deductions to state bodies. The study presents an improved methodological approach to estimating and forecasting state budget revenues from hydrocarbon resources. The main stages of development are investigated and the main trends of the system of tax deductions from oil production are revealed. Explained the use of an approach focused on the forecast of production indicators of production, taking into account the structure of the mineral resource base. The calculations showed the need to reform the system of formation of government revenues from hydrocarbon resources. In the structure of government revenues from hydrocarbon resources, there is a tendency to increase the role of the mineral extraction tax in comparison with the export duty.