Analysis of the evolution of drought through spi and its relationship with the agricultural sector in the central zone of the state of Veracruz, Mexico

Abstract

Agriculture and raising livestock are human activities highly affected by drought. In Mexico, the Veracruz territory is seriously affected by this phenomenon. Our study had two objectives: (1) to analyze the drought evolution through the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the maximum temperature in the central zone of the state of Veracruz for the period 1980–2018; and (2) to describe the relationship between the yield of corn grain and cattle, and the SPI, in the study area. The methodology consisted of calculating the SPI to estimate the drought conditions in the mentioned area. Subsequently, we determined the relationship of these conditions with the maximum temperature increase and the presence of El Niño/La Niña events. The results showed that the drought has intensified during 1980–2018, having a presence in almost 50% of the area. Additionally, the maximum temperature increased by approximately 6◦C. As a result, the cultivation of corn grain under rain conditions showed reductions in 48% of the analyzed municipalities. Concerning livestock variables, lower reductions were reported (42–32%) for the same period. Therefore, we can conclude that the drought has intensified in recent years due to an increase in the maximum temperature and El Niño/La Niña events, and these factors have had a higher impact on the agricultural sector.