Automating model builds for sequence optimization of flood mitigation investment phases

Abstract

A process and a set of tools are proposed to automate the creation of an exhaustive set of flood mitigation scenarios modeled by the United States Environmental Protection Agency's Stormwater Management Model (SWMM), as well as to create a strategic planning framework that takes advantage of the exhaustive model scope. Using the proposed method, models are generated for each logical combination of independent flood mitigation alternatives at each possible phase of implementation (i.e. at every practical phase of investment). Cost estimates and flood risk reduction values are calculated for each flood mitigation alternative and organized into all possible sequences of implementation. The exhaustive set of progressive implementation scenarios is then used as a decision-making tool to provide flexibility in long term planning. Because each phase of investment can be implemented and function independently, large capital improvement programs can be constructed progressively without having to commit (politically and financially) to the cost of full implementation of the program. With the proposed process and the data produced, it is shown that strategic planning can be adaptive and may be adjusted to favour short term cost effectiveness, or optimized within a long term budget while being able to end investment at any phase in the program.