Sustainable Transport Between Reality and Legislative Provisions—The Source for the Climate Neutrality of the European Union

Abstract

Environmental protection and climate change are the most debated issues, both in economic research and in EU legislative regulations. This work is also focused on these issues and aims to analyze the evolution of GHG emissions from transport, the main contributor to total emissions. The novelty of this research aligns with the EU climate policy established within the European Green Deal’s “Fit for 55” package, aiming for a 55% reduction in net greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 (compared to 1990 levels), and the broader objective of climate neutrality by 2050 as outlined in the European Climate Law. The study’s originality lies in the selection of variables that can influence the reduction of emissions and the anticipation of future developments using the Prophet model, for the period 2024–2050. The estimates obtained allowed the construction of clusters to identify EU member states that will record reductions in GHG emissions in the analyzed period and will be able to represent models for other economies. The results obtained are beneficial for decision-makers at European and national levels and highlight the need for urgent action to reduce emissions and limit the negative effects of climate change.