Impact of Climate Change on the Emergence of Plant Pathogens in Tomato Plants

Abstract

Climate change poses an escalating challenge to agricultural systems worldwide, significantly impacting both input availability and crop yields. As global temperatures rise and weather patterns become more erratic, the spread of plant diseases is intensifying, thereby threatening global food security. This study aimed to evaluate the effects of climate change on pathogen emergence, severity, and tomato crop production. The experimental design included four treatments: a control group, an increased temperature scenario (2-3°C above ambient), elevated CO2 concentration (300 ppm), and a combination of increased temperature and CO2 levels. These treatments were implemented in a controlled environment to regulate the experimental conditions precisely. The collected results were entered and analyzed using the R software. Descriptive statistics, ANOVA, and regression analysis were used to reach the results. The increase in temperature increased the pathogens by 40% after 16 weeks, while under CO2 treatment, the pathogens increased by 30% compared to the control treatment. The mix treatment of temperature and CO2 increased the pathogens by 70% compared to the control treatment. Disease severity increased to 2, 4, and 6 levels under the temperature, CO2, and mix treatments. Regression analysis revealed significant correlations between elevated temperature and CO2 concentrations and the severity of tomato diseases. Tomato production per plant dropped by 60%, 70%, and 30% under temperature, CO2, and mix treatment. The study recommended the need for innovative agricultural practices to face the increased risk of plant production under climate change conditions.