Modelling Climate-Sensitive Forest Succession to Assess Impacts of Climate Change and Support Decision Making

Abstract

Mountain forests provide a wide variety of ecosystem services to society. In light of the trend of temperature increase and related climatic extremes in the Greater Alpine Area, mountain forests are likely to undergo dramatic changes in the coming centuries. Therefore, forest managers face the challenge of adapting forests to support resilience to climate change. To facilitate this process, the forest gap model ForClim, a process-based forest succession model, was applied to generate site-specific information on future forest stand development and species composition. The tree species composition without management activities was predicted up to 2100 assuming a stable climate, and for both moderate and severe climate-change scenarios. Furthermore, three different forest stand development scenarios were implemented. The forest stand investigated in our research shows significant climate-sensitivity. Results demonstrate that deciduous mixed forest stands are necessary to increase resilience and manage forests for climate change. Using active silvicultural measures, such as assisted migration through planting thermophilus species, negative effects of climate change could be reduced. The modelling approach presented here is appropriate for assessing the impacts of climate change and supporting decision making by local forest managers.