Further, steeper, greener: Implications from an electric bicycle mode choice model

Abstract

Electric bicycles are transforming the active mobility landscape, potentially increasing active mode uptake and delivering environmental and health benefits. This study examines electric bicycle mode choice and which modes they replace. It employs a trip-level nested logit mode choice model with six alternatives, including conventional and electric bicycles. The model is estimated using 194,524 trips from the “Mobility in Germany” survey, augmented with data on gradient, spatial typology, public transport departures, and bicycle infrastructure coverage. We validate the model to infer generalizability, derive elasticities, and compute substitution rates. Our results reject nesting electric with conventional bicycles, underscoring their distinct characteristics and minimal shared unobserved attributes. The choice to use an electric bicycle is less affected by the availability of bicycle infrastructure and the length of a trip compared to the decision to use a conventional bicycle. In fact, electric bicycles are closer to cars than to conventional bicycles in terms of distance sensitivity. For both types of bicycle, mode choice is strongly and similarly dependent on gradient, with this effect furthermore depending on age. 43.1% of electric bicycle trips and 63.2% of electric bicycle mileage would have been undertaken using a car if no e-bike had been available, highlighting their substantial potential to reduce transport-related CO2 emissions. These findings support the role of e-bikes in advancing sustainable mobility by displacing car trips and broadening access to active transportation.