Determining the Correlation between Abaca (Musa textilis) Distribution Patterns and Bunchy Top Disease Prevalence in the Caraga Region through Spatial Point Pattern and Statistical Analysis

Abstract

Abaca (Musa textilis), a versatile and strong natural fiber endemic to the Philippines, presents an eco-friendly alternative to wood in pulp and paper production and is preferred over plastics and synthetic materials. Despite its benefits, the cultivation of Abaca faces significant challenges from Banana Bunchy Top Disease (BBTD), threatening the industry's viability. This study employs Spatial Point Pattern Analysis to investigate the distribution of Banana Bunchy Top Virus (BBTV), utilizes logistic regression to identify environmental factors affecting disease spread, and creates a hotspot map pinpointing municipalities at higher risk. The logistic regression analysis identifies precipitation, maximum and minimum temperatures, and wind speed as significant predictors of BBTV transmission in abaca plants. The hotspot analysis revealed that out of the 19 municipalities with abaca crops, Butuan City, Las Nieves, Bayugan, Esperanza, and Sibagat are high-risk areas for BBTV infection, underscoring the need for targeted disease management strategies in these regions.