Attacking the grid: Lessons from a guerrilla conflict and efforts for peace in Colombia: 1990–2018

Abstract

Colombia has suffered a decades long internal conflict with leftist guerrillas. Its power grid has been attacked, causing significant damage to Colombian industry and disruption to citizens. This article uses data from ISA and XM (operators of the Colombian power grid) and from Centro de Investigación y Educación Popular (CINEP), a non-profit organization tracking the internal conflict in Colombia), to compare patterns of tower attacks to the general conflict with two main leftist guerrilla groups, the Ejército de Liberación Nacional (ELN) and the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC). Using time series analysis, trends of violence, tower attacks, and peace attempts from 1990 to 2018 are examined to see if structural breaks in violence correspond to critical junctures in negotiations. Attacks on the power grid are shown to be a popular guerrilla tactic to pressure the government.