CMIP6 models agree on similar carbon cycle feedbacks between enhancing terrestrial and marine carbon sinks

Abstract

Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is a crucial component of climate mitigation required to reach international climate targets. However, gaps exist in our understanding of the responses and feedbacks of the Earth system to the deployment of CDR. In this study, we compare two complementary approaches that enhance the terrestrial and marine carbon sinks with afforestation and reforestation (A/R) and ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE), respectively, under the high emission scenario SSP5-8.5. Eight CMIP6 Earth system models are utilized, enabling a quantification of both inter-model and internal variability. By mid-century, simulated large-scale deployment of A/R and OAE individually reduces atmospheric CO2 concentrations by up to 20 ppm. For both methods, while carbon removal from the atmosphere is robust, it is difficult to detect the effects on global mean temperature, posing challenges for monitoring, reporting and verification of mitigation efforts. To quantify the carbon cycle feedbacks, we define the carbon cycle feedback ratio of A/R (OAE) as the ratio of changes in the marine (terrestrial) sink to changes in the terrestrial (marine) sink. We show that the carbon cycle feedback ratios of A/R and OAE have similar magnitudes, which are −16% and −13%, respectively. Moreover, although inter-model differences of the simulated amounts of carbon removal due to A/R are large, the corresponding carbon cycle feedback ratios of A/R are similar.