European spring and autumn temperature variability and change of extremes over the last half millennium

Abstract

We evaluate variability, trends, uncertainties, and change of extremes of reconstructed and observed European spring and autumn temperature back to 1500. Spring and autumn temperature experienced systematic century-scale cooling compared to present conditions. The coldest springs appeared during the Maunder Minimum (ΔT = -1 K wrt 1901-2000). The amplitude of spring temperature variations at decadal and multidecadal scales doubles that of autumn and is most expressed in northeastern Europe. The decade 1995-2004 was very likely the warmest of the last half millennium. Anomalously warm springs and autumns have generally become more extreme in recent decades. However, the recent changes are statistically not significant with respect to the pre-industrial period. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.