The New Final Frontier: A Case Study Analysis of Private Sector’s Increasing Role in the Space Industry

Abstract

Historically, any endeavors, involving the term ‘space’, were perceived as operations undertaken by large government organizations with an emphasis on the scientific aspect, rather than a business one. However, over the last two decades, the structure of the space industry is rapidly being transformed and privatized due to the growth in commercial applications and the catalyzing entry of billionaires such as Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos. This paper offers a case study analysis of the private sector’s growing influence in the space industry through a combination of a quantitative analysis and an in-depth review of the surrounding literature. The results show that the commercial economy now accounts for almost 80% of the monetary size of the space industry and is expected to drive most of the growth in future. Further, a forecast of the future size of the space economy suggests it could touch almost US$1.5 trillion by 2040, dominated by the private sector. A regression analysis conducted to assess the quantum of private sector investment that will be required if the industry is to achieve its forecasted potential in the upcoming decades revealed that private investments must go up to US$48billion by 2025.