Population density and rainfall increase the incidence of Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever in West Java, Indonesia: A secondary data analysis from 2017 to 2021

Abstract

Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever (DHF) is one of the seasonal/latent infectious diseases that potentially to become an epidemic if it is not anticipated properly. DHF cases in West Java, show fluctuating numbers and this province is one of the provinces in Indonesia with the most dengue cases each year. This study aimed to analyse the relationship between rainfall, temperature and population density with the incidence of DHF in West Java, Indonesia. This research was an analytical study using secondary data from 2017 to 2021. Data on population density and rainfall were obtained from the BPS Statistics of West Java Province, while DHF case data were obtained from the West Java Provincial Health Office. The data were analysed using ordinal regression. Results of this study found that the risk of increasing DHF cases in densely populated areas was 8.75 times higher than in less densely populated areas. This study also showed that the risk of increasing DHF cases in areas with high rainfall was 21.43 times higher compared to areas with low rainfall. Therefore, it can be concluded that the denser of the population and the higher of the rainfall, the greater risk of increasing DHF cases in the region.