THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON RICE YIELD IN BANGLADESH: A TIME SERIES ANALYSIS

Abstract

Rice is the staple food of about 158 million people of Bangladesh, but the increasing climate change vulnerabilities and global warming are severely reducing the yield of various rice crops and may threaten the food security in the country. Therefore, this study is undertaken to examine the potential impact of climate change on the yield of three different rice crops (namely, Aus, Aman and Boro) in Bangladesh. A multiple regression analysis using OLS method is employed to assess the climate-crop yield interrelations on the basis of country level time series data for the period 1972-2014. We find that all the climate variables have had significant impact on rice yield over the period under study, but these effects vary among three different rice yields. Our findings also reveal that maximum temperature is statistically significant and negatively affect the yield of all three rice crops. In contrast, minimum temperature is highly significant and have positive impact on the yield of Boro rice only. Furthermore, rainfall is found significant for all rice yields with positive effects on Aus and Aman rice and adverse effects on Boro. However, humidity has a statistically significant effect on the yield of all three rice crops. Nevertheless, the influences of maximum temperature and rainfall are more prominent compared with that of minimum temperature and humidity on rice yield in Bangladesh. Our findings emphasize the importance of adaptation of temperature-tolerant rice varieties, and suggest that sustainable agricultural development may play a vital role in mitigating adverse climate change effects.