Accident and pollution risk assessment for hazardous cargo in a port environment

Abstract

The catastrophic environmental, life and monetary losses concomitant to the hazardous cargo accidents have remained a matter of critical concern for the maritime transportation officials. The factors that instigate these accidents while dealing with hazardous cargo in a port environment requires rigorous analysis and evaluation, which still remains in its infancy. In accord to these prevailing issues, this study focusses on the assessment of multifactor risks associated with the dealing of hazardous cargos inside a port. The methodology adopted is the amalgamation of expert judgment and literature review for the identification of factors and developing their causal relationship, while Bayesian Network (BN) for the inference, which was based on 348 past accident reports from the year 1990 to 2018. The results indicate that under normal circumstances, the probability of an accident with considerable consequences is 59.8, where human and management were found to be the highest contributing factors. Setting evidence at the environment and pollution accident to occur, the incidence probability of the “management” is raised by 7.06%. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine the most critical factors for the hazardous cargo accident. This study reveals that in order to evade the hazardous cargo accidents and curtail severity of the consequences, the port authorities, concerned government departments and other related institutions should pay specific attention to the qualification, training and attitude of the involved workforce. Moreover, the development and implementation of stringent safety protocols was also revealed to have critical prominence. This study holds practical vitality for enhancing safety and mitigating risks associated to hazardous cargo dealing in a port.