A very short-term probabilistic prediction interval forecaster for reducing load uncertainty level in smart grids

Abstract

Very short-term load demand forecasters are essential for power systems’ decision makers in real-time dispatching. These tools allow traditional network operators to maintain power sys-tems’ safety and stability and provide customers energy with high reliability. Although research has traditionally focused on developing point forecasters, these tools do not provide complete information because they do not estimate the deviation between actual and predicted values. There-fore, the aim of this paper is to develop a very short-term probabilistic prediction interval forecaster to reduce decision makers’ uncertainty by computing the predicted value’s upper and lower bounds. The proposed forecaster combines an artificial intelligence-based point forecaster with a probabilistic prediction interval algorithm. First, the point forecaster predicts energy demand in the next 15 min and then the prediction interval algorithm calculates the upper and lower bounds with the user’s chosen confidence level. To examine the reliability of proposed forecaster model and re-sulting interval sharpness, different error metrics, such as prediction interval coverage percentage and a skill score, are computed for 95, 90, and 85% confidence intervals. Results show that the prediction interval coverage percentage is higher than the confidence level in each analysis, which means that the proposed model is valid for practical applications.