Managing China–U.S. “strategic competition”: potential risks and possible approaches

Abstract

The relationship between China and the United States has entered a new phase in which the original framework of the bilateral relationship is falling apart, a new framework has yet to be established, and both sides are exploring ways to move forward. “Strategic competition”, at least for the short and medium term, will be the new normal for this relationship, and the Biden administration strengthened this approach even further. The shifting framework of the bilateral relationship is bound to reshape each side’s perceptions of the other, and any action based on misperception and miscalculation is subject to accident or even conflict. Thus, it is critical for both sides to properly manage the “strategic competition” between them. Both China and the United States should take in the experience and lessons of the Cold War. The two sides should work together to identify issue areas where differences exist and create conditions to manage and resolve those differences; try to incorporate new arrangements for crisis management into existing diplomatic and security dialogue mechanisms on different levels; fully implement agreements immediately relevant to crisis management while exploring ways to reach new ones; and keep dialogue and communication channels open at all levels so that clear signals can be sent out through official or unofficial means.