Crop yield prediction integrating genotype and weather variables using deep learning

Abstract

Accurate prediction of crop yield supported by scientific and domain-relevant insights, is useful to improve agricultural breeding, provide monitoring across diverse climatic conditions and thereby protect against climatic challenges to crop production. We used performance records from Uniform Soybean Tests (UST) in North America to build a Long Short Term Memory (LSTM)-Recurrent Neural Network based model that leveraged pedigree relatedness measures along with weekly weather parameters to dissect and predict genotype response in multiple-environments. Our proposed models outperformed other competing machine learning models such as Support Vector Regression with Radial Basis Function kernel (SVR-RBF), least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression and the data-driven USDA model for yield prediction. Additionally, for providing interpretability of the important time-windows in the growing season, we developed a temporal attention mechanism for LSTM models. The outputs of such interpretable models could provide valuable insights to plant breeders.