Development and Validation of a Nomogram to Predict the Individual Future Stroke Risk for Adult Patients With Moyamoya Disease: A Multicenter Retrospective Cohort Study in China

Abstract

Background: Studies exploring the predictive performance of major risk factors associated with future stroke events are insufficient, and a useful tool to predict individual risk is not available. Therefore, personalized advice for preventing future stroke in patients with moyamoya disease (MMD) cannot provide evidence-based recommendations. The aim of this study was to develop a novel nomogram with reliable validity to predict the individual risk of future stroke for adult MMD patients. Methods: This study included 450 patients from seven medical centers between January 2013 and December 2018. Follow-ups were performed via clinical visits and/or telephone interviews from initial discharge to December 2019. The cohort was randomly assigned to a training set (2/3, n = 300) for nomogram development and a test set (1/3, n = 150) for external validation. The Kaplan-Meier analyses and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were applied to assess the clinical benefits of this nomogram. Results: Diabetes mellitus, a family history of MMD, a past history of stroke or transient ischemic attack, clinical manifestation, and treatment were identified as major risk factors via the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) method. A nomogram including these predictors was established via a multivariate Cox regression model, which displayed excellent discrimination [Harrell's concordance index (C-index), 0.85; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.75–0.96] and calibration. In the external validation, the nomogram was found to have good discrimination (C-index, 0.81; 95% CI: 0.68–0.94) and calibration. In the subgroup analysis, this predictive nomogram also showed great performance in both ischemic-type (C-index, 0.90; 95% CI: 0.77–1.00) and hemorrhagic-type MMD (C-index, 0.72; 95% CI: 0.61–0.83). Furthermore, the nomogram was shown to have potential in clinical practice through Kaplan-Meier analyses and ROC curves. Conclusions: We developed a novel nomogram incorporating several clinical characteristics with relatively good accuracy, which may have considerable potential for evaluating individual future stroke risk and providing useful management recommendations for adult patients with MMD in clinical practice.