A waveform skewness index for measuring time series nonlinearity and its applications to the ENSO-Indian monsoon relationship

Abstract

Many geophysical time series possess nonlinear characteristics that reflect the underlying physics of the phenomena the time series describe. The nonlinear character of times series can change with time, so it is important to quantify time series nonlinearity without assuming stationarity. A common way of quantifying the time evolution of time series nonlinearity is to compute sliding skewness time series, but it is shown here that such an approach can be misleading when time series contain periodicities. To remedy this deficiency of skewness, a new waveform skewness index is proposed for quantifying local nonlinearities embedded in time series. A waveform skewness spectrum is proposed for determining the frequency components that are contributing to time series waveform skewness. The new methods are applied to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian monsoon to test a recently proposed hypothesis that states that changes in the ENSO-Indian monsoon relationship are related to ENSO nonlinearity. We show that the ENSO-Indian rainfall relationship weakens during time periods of high ENSO waveform skewness. The results from two different analyses suggest that the breakdown of the ENSO-Indian monsoon relationship during time periods of high ENSO waveform skewness is related to the more frequent occurrence of strong central Pacific El Niño events, supporting arguments that changes in the ENSO-Indian rainfall relationship are not solely related to noise.