Berpengaruhkah Jumlah Uang Beredar, Suku Bunga, Ekspor dan Impor terhadap Inflasi di Indonesia?

Abstract

Inflation is a macroeconomic problem faced by all countries around the world and Indonesia is one of them. The discussion about inflation is very important because of its significant effect on economic performance. The real sector, such as exports and imports, also influences inflation as well as the financial sector. For this reason, continuous studies are needed to monitor inflation movements so that they can be controlled and the economy can run smoothly. This study aims to examine the effect of the money supply, interest rates, exports and imports on inflation in Indonesia. The analytical method used is multiple linear regression analysis, monthly data from 2014 to 2018. The Gauss-Marcov theoretical test is applied to all data and all pass. Studies show empirical support for a significant impact on the alpha value of 5% of the money supply and imports with a negative effect on the analysis period where there is a possibility that other variables affect inflation more. Interest rates and exports have a positive and significant effect on alpha 5% on inflation. The feasibility value of the model assessed by the F test is said to be feasible with a significant F test value. The adjusted coefficient of determination shows 69.47 percent, meaning that 30.53% is contributed by other variables outside the model.