The Indo-Pacific and the Next Phase of ASEAN Centrality

Abstract

The concept of “ASEAN centrality” emerged in the aftermath of the Cold War but renewed power rivalries in the Indo-Pacific have put its relevance under scrutiny. This study contributes to the debate on the continuity of ASEAN centrality by examining major powers’ willingness to adhere to and engage with ASEAN-led mechanisms, which we argue will have a decisive impact on the dominant form of the organisation of regional order. Our analysis shows that the major powers – China, the European Union, India, Japan, and the United States – subscribe to an enhanced role for ASEAN in the economic realm but do not see the mechanism as the first resort in political and security cooperation. ASEAN centrality is hard to continue, although a possible way out for ASEAN is to leverage its in-between position to help diffuse tensions so major powers have a stake in maintaining its centrality.