Numerical Modeling of Currents Circulation in Balikpapan Bay during Oil Spill Event on March 31, 2018

Abstract

The coastal area in Balikpapan Bay and its surrounding area has been devastated after the burst of an underwater oil pipe at the bay on March 31st, 2018, and the crude oil still continues spreading for a few days later. A three-dimensional hydrodynamic model is used to simulate the currents dynamic and investigate the influence of the current circulation on the spreading of the oil spill in Balikpapan Bay from March 31th to April 15th, 2018, to cover the event i.e. several weeks after the oil spill incident. Model results are validated by calculating the RMSE, MAPE and model skill using water level between available observation data at Semayang Port, Balikpapan station and numerical model from October 1st, 2012 to January 1st, 2013. Verification result of tidal elevation data from observation and model prediction shows a good agreement with RMSE = 7.8 cm, MAPE = 14.3% and model skill = 0.995. Surface currents circulation in Balikpapan Bay can be distinguished by the currents pattern on the spring tide and neap tide condition. During the spring tide condition, the surface currents mostly move to the east after coming out from the bay. However, the surface currents are strongly going southward after come out from the bay on the neap tide condition. Based on the satellite images captured for the next days after the event, the spreading pattern of the oil spill seems to be matched to the pattern of surface currents circulation on the spring tide condition. From the analysis of the model result, it shows that the currents circulation playing the main role to disperse the oil spill in Balikpapan Bay towards the Makassar Strait.