Mathematical approach for system repair rate analysis used in maintenance decision making

Abstract

Reliability, the number of spare parts and repair time have a great impact on system availability. In this paper, we observed a repairable system comprised of several components. The aim was to determine the repair rate by emphasizing its stochastic nature. A model for the statistical analysis of the component repair rate in function of the desired level of availability is presented. Furthermore, based on the presented model, the approach for the calculation of probability density functions of maximal and minimal repair times for a system comprised of observed components was developed as an important measure that unambiguously defines the total annual repair time. The obtained generalized analytical expressions that can be used to predict the total repair time for an observed entity are the main contributions of the manuscript. The outputs of the model can be useful for making decisions in which time interval repair or replacement should be done to maintain the system and component availability. In addition to planning maintenance activities, the presented models could be used for service capacity planning and the dynamic forecasting of system characteristics.