Adapting and combining foresight and ex ante impact pathway evaluation for place-based research planning with stakeholders

Abstract

Evaluators widely utilize theory of change or impact pathway approaches to design and evaluate interventions. In research settings, there is increasing demand for ex ante impact pathways that are place-based, coherent, and plausible, in order to foster more impactful interventions. Foresight approaches, which enable a collaborative, structured, and systematic way to anticipate, prepare, and affect the course of change, can help achieve this by exploring diverse future scenarios, the consequences of different assumptions, or how to overcome threats and leverage opportunities for change. Through three case examples, we show how foresight tools used prior to developing impact pathways can free participants from preconceived notions of the intervention's context, actors, and impacts, and thus support creative and systemic analyses of the future to rethink the present. They extend the analysis of how different actors can shape the future, identifying effects that might otherwise be overlooked or marginalized during the planning and evaluation of the intervention, while also helping to identify the conditions necessary for desired impacts. Nonetheless, their use entails evaluative judgments about the potential impacts to be prioritized in intervention design and evaluation. This is especially relevant in the case of research where scientific or technical aspects are usually prioritized. Finally, there is an entry cost to foresight tools for evaluators, in particular for the facilitation of strategic thinking about the future. However, we recommend them as a worthwhile addition to the evaluator's toolbox to broaden the scope of design and evaluation.