Using Machine Learning to Predict-Then-Optimize Elective Orthopedic Surgery Scheduling to Improve Operating Room Utilization: Retrospective Study

Abstract

Background: Total knee and hip arthroplasty (TKA and THA) are among the most performed elective procedures. Rising demand and the resource-intensive nature of these procedures have contributed to longer wait times despite significant health care investment. Current scheduling methods often rely on average surgical durations, overlooking patient-specific variability. Objective: To determine the potential for improving elective surgery scheduling for TKA and THA, respectively, by using a 2-stage approach that incorporates machine learning (ML) prediction of the duration of surgery (DOS) with scheduling optimization. Methods: In total, 2 ML models (one each for TKA and THA) were trained to predict DOS using patient factors based on 302,490 and 196,942 patients, respectively, from a large international database. In total, 3 optimization formulations based on varying surgeon flexibility were compared: Any (surgeons could operate in any operating room at any time), Split (limitation of 2 surgeons per operating room per day), and multiple subset sum problem (MSSP; limit of 1 surgeon per operating room per day). Two years of daily scheduling simulations were performed for each optimization problem using ML prediction or mean DOS over a range of schedule parameters. Constraints and resources were based on a high-volume arthroplasty hospital in Canada. Results: The TKA and THA prediction models achieved test accuracy (with a 30 min buffer) of 78.1% (mean squared error 0.898) and 75.4% (mean squared error 0.916), respectively. Any scheduling formulation performed significantly worse than the Split and MSSP formulations with respect to overtime and underutilization (P.05) over most schedule parameters. The ML prediction schedules outperformed those generated using a mean DOS for most scheduling parameters, with overtime reduced on average by 300-500 minutes per week (12‐20 min per operating room per day; P