High-resolution regional climate simulations of the long-term decrease in September rainfall over Indochina

Abstract

We address the long-term decrease in September rainfall over the Indochina Peninsula. Distinct long-term decreases in rainfall along the monsoon trough across the Indochina Peninsula have been observed. We performed long-term simulations and discuss the effects of long-term changes in both the local surface conditions and large-scale circulation. Using a 30-year simulation for September for the period from 1966 to 1995 with landuse conditions fixed at present-day values and neglecting the recorded deforestation, we successfully simulated the observed long-term decrease in rainfall. We therefore conclude that the weakening tropical-cyclone activity over the Indochina Peninsula region is probably responsible for the decrease in rainfall. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society.