Artificial intelligence in support to space traffic management

Abstract

This paper presents an Artificial Intelligence-based decision support system to assist ground operators to plan and implement collision avoidance manoeuvres. When a new conjunction is expected, the system provides the operator with an optimal manoeuvre and an analysis of the possible outcomes. Machine learning techniques are combined with uncertainty quantification and orbital mechanics calculations to support an optimal and reliable management of space traffic. A dataset of collision avoidance manoeuvres has been created by simulating a range of scenarios in which optimal manoeuvres (in the sense of optimal control) are applied to reduce the collision probability between pairs of objects. The consequences of the execution of a manoeuvre are evaluated to assess its benefits against its cost. Consequences are quantified in terms of the need for additional manoeuvres to avoid subsequent collisions. By using this dataset, we train predictive models that forecast the risk of avoiding new collisions, and use them to recommend alternative manoeuvres that may be globally better for the space environment.