Analysis of Crisis Phenomena in the Russian Economy Using Fast Indicators of Economic Security

Abstract

Abstract: This article shows the possibility of applying short-term (fast) indicators of economic security to analyze crisis phenomena in the economy of Russia. The system includes the indicators adopted in the Strategy for the Economic Security of the Russian Federation up to 2030. It is proposed to jointly analyze these indicators through new nonlinear normalizing functions that contain their threshold and target values as parameters. The fast indicators system is used to analyze four economic crises in Russia, including their prerequisites and the pace and depth of the recession and subsequent recovery of the real economy and other sectors, such as the financial and social sectors, and foreign trade. Integral indices are synthesized for these sectors, the composite index of economic security is calculated, and the patterns of their joint movement are considered. The RTS index is singled out among the forward-looking indices that can be potential forerunners of a crisis.