Impact of Climate and Land Use Change on Economic Development in the Baoxing River Watershed in Giant Panda National Park

Abstract

China established the Giant Panda National Park for ecological and species protection. New management requirements will impact the socioeconomic sustainability of the Baoxing River watershed, the core area of the national park. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model was used to explore future temporal distribution and magnitude of discharge in the Baoxing River watershed under climate and land use change to evaluate potential impacts on the local economy. Six scenarios were explored according to land use changes and climate emission scenarios. Peak discharge is predicted to shift to May through July in contrast to July through September during the base evaluation period. The gross industrial output and tax revenue of the cascade hydropower system in the watershed were predicted to increase by 68 and 95 million USD/year and 2.9 and 3.8 million USD/year, respectively, compared to the base year 2016 under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) and RCP8.5 emission scenarios, respectively. However, due to the overall loss of the mining industry, the gross industrial output and tax revenue of hydropower and mining in the watershed were predicted to decrease by 125 and 233 million USD/year and 4.1 and 9 million USD/year, respectively, compared to the base year 2016. Findings are important for policy development to maintain ecological security and achieve sustainable economic development within the watershed.