Operational Replacement Decision Model for Dairy Herds

Abstract

The model is to aid the decision maker for dairy herds by optimization of replacement decisions. It is an interactive tool dealing with operational replacement decisions, namely, which cows to cull and which to enter to the herd under any given situation. The expected economic value of keeping a cow in the herd is computed by Markovian decision model and used as a basis for replacement decisions. The interactive mode enables one to consider several alternatives derived from subjective preferences and unquantifiable factors. This model has been applied to a small herd and has proved itself a significant aid for culling and replacement decision. It is being applied to a larger herd. © 1983, American Dairy Science Association. All rights reserved.