Connectivity and climate change drive the global distribution of highly invasive termites

Abstract

Termites are amongst the most abundant and ecologically-important groups of insects in tropical forests. However, the destructive potential of some species amounts to billions of dollars in damage each year. Despite their economic and ecological impacts, only a limited number of invasive termite species have been studied using distribution modelling and no studies have taken trade, transport and demography variables into account. We used Species Distribution Models (SDMs) to investigate the potential distribution of 10 highly-invasive termites. Our study includes bioclimatic conditions, land-use patterns, elevation and connectivity predictors (i.e. urban areas, human population, accessibility to cities and private vessels), alongside different climatic and socioeconomic change scenarios. The distribution of the termite species hinges on bioclimatic and connectivity variables, highlighting the significance of these latter factors in invasive species analyses. Our models demonstrate the potential of these invasive termites to thrive in large urbanised and connected areas within tropical and subtropical regions and to a lesser extent within temperate regions. As climate changes and urbanisation intensifies, most species’ range could expand, particularly under a “fossil fuel-driven development” scenario. Furthermore, while some species may have a slightly reduced range, they could extend their presence into more urbanised and connected areas, increasing the risks and costs associated with termite damages. Our models highlight the anticipated role of growing connectivity and climate change dynamics in facilitating the widespread proliferation of invasive termites in the coming years.