A model to predict the coastal sea level variations and surge

Abstract

This paper presents a methodology to predict the coastal sea level variations and surge using a neural network model. Although drastic storm surge typically does not occur along the coastal waters of Brazil, these events can cause some damage to coastal regions. A strong storm surge occurred along the southeast coast of Brazil in March 1998 caused severe flooding in these coastal areas, destroying some coastline constructs. Operational forecasting of high sea levels (storm surges) might be important in the southeast coastal of Brazil, where there are registered sea level variations above the astronomical tide predictions that can consistently impact coastal zones in this area. The aim of this study is to develop an empirical prediction of storm surge by determining the relationship of the wind and pressure fields to storm surge. This proposed model can be used to as complement of the standard constant harmonic model to improve the prediction of the sea level variations. © 2009 WIT Press.