Performance of general circulation models in southeastern South America

Abstract

Outputs from 5 general circulation models (GCMs) were analyzed in order to evaluate their performance for estimating future climate conditions in the temperate zone of southeastern South America (24° to 38°S and 50° to 65° W). The GCMs analyzed were: GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Science), GFDL-R30 and GFDL 1% (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory), UKMO (United Kingdom Meteorological Office), and CCCM (Canadian Climate Center Model). The variables under study were mean monthly temperature and mean daily precipitation. The degree to which the models represent current climate was estimated by comparing model outputs with observed climate values for the 1951 to 1970 period by means of a correlation analysis. The temperature values estimated by the models showed a good fit with the observed values. However, fitting of precipitation values was not statistically significant. This study was carried out within the framework of the Uruguay Climate Change Country Study as a basis for assessing the impact of climate change on the agricultural sector.