Implementation of GWR and MGWR in Modelling Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) in East Java

Abstract

Introduction: one important indicator of national development success is the increase in real Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP), which reflects regional economic performance. The GRDP growth rate, calculated as the percentage increase from the previous year, serves as a critical measure for evaluating economic progress. In the case of East Java, identifying the factors influencing GRDP growth is essential to support more effective and region-specific policy-making. This research aims to analyze those influencing factors using spatial regression methods. Method: in this research, Geographically Weighted Regression and Mixed Geographically Weighted Regression methods are used to model the factors that influence the growth rate of GRDP in East Java. Results: based on the results of the research that has been analyzed, it is known that the GWR model has an AICc score of 136,646, while the MGWR model has an AICc score of 134,3184, so it can be concluded that the MGWR method with a fixed gaussian kernel has better performance in modeling the factors that influence the GRDP growth rate in East Java. Conclusions: globally, the General Allocation Fund and the Open Unemployment Rate significantly affect GRDP growth. Locally, the Percentage of Poor Population, Average Minimum Wage, Local Original Income, and Production Agglomeration show significant effects in specific areas. On the other hand, the Human Development Index and Population Density do not exhibit significant influence on GRDP growth, either globally or locally.