Climate change in Victoria: trends, predictions and impacts

Abstract

Australia’s climate is changing, consistent with global trends. Continental average temperatures have increased nearly 1°C since the early 20th century, with warming accelerating since the 1950s. The number of extreme hot days is increasing, whereas the number of cold days and frosts is decreasing. With an average temperature over 1.0°C above the long-term mean, 2005 was Australia’s warmest year on record; 2009 was the second warmest year on record. The decade 2000–2009 was Australia’s warmest. Rainfall has been decreasing in the south-west and south-east of Australia, but increasing in the north-west. The ocean is warming and sea levels are rising, consistent with global averages. Consistent with global and national trends, Victoria’s climate is already changing and will continue to do so, posing significant risks to the State. Over the past few decades Victoria has become hotter and drier, and these trends are likely to continue, together with an increasing intensity and/or frequency of extreme events, such as heatwaves, droughts, bushfires and floods, posing significant risks to the State’s infrastructure, coasts, ecosystems, agriculture and health.