Survival Analysis of Logistics Service Providers: An Empirical Study of Chengdu, Area in China

Abstract

This paper worked on a sample of 6791 logistics establishments registered in Chengdu, China over the period 1984-2016 to understand the survival status of logistics service providers (LSPs) by non-parametric Kaplan-Meier estimation, together with Cox proportional hazard regression model, to identify factors affecting the failure of LSPs. In particular, it studies the interaction effect between LSPs’ size and entry timing and location. The empirical results show that: 1) Regarding the survival time, 1365 of the 6791 sample LSPs exited from the market by 2017. The exit rate is 20.1%, and the average life of the 6791 LSPs is about 6 years. 2) The survival of LSPs depends on their typology, ownership structure. And there is no significant difference in the probability of survival for both independent LSPs and logistics branches after controlling the effects of other variables. 3) Location and entry timing also play an important role in the survival of small-scale LSPs, but these factors cannot explain large-scale LSPs’ failure.