Semi-empirical forecast modelling of rip-current and shore-break wave hazards

Abstract

Sandy beaches are highly attractive but also potentially dangerous environments for those entering the water as they can be exposed to physical hazards in the surf zone. The most severe and widespread natural bathing hazards on beaches are rip currents and shore-break waves, which form under different wave, tide, and morphological conditions. This paper introduces two new, simple semi-empirical rip-current and shore-break wave hazard forecast models. These physics-informed models, which depend on a limited number of free parameters, can be used to compute the time evolution of the rip-current flow speed V and shore-break wave energy Esb. These models are applied to a high-energy mesotidal-macrotidal beach, La Lette Blanche, in southwest France, where intense rip-currents and shore-break wave hazards co-exist. Hourly lifeguard-perceived hazards collected during patrolling hours (from 11:00 a.m. to 07:00 p.m. LT (UTC+2)) during July and August of 2022 are used to calibrate the two models. These data are also used to transform V and Esb into a five-level scale from 0 (no hazard) to 4 (hazard maximised). The model accurately predicts rip-current and shore-break wave hazard levels, including their modulation by tide elevation and incident wave conditions, opening new perspectives for forecasting multiple surf-zone hazards on sandy beaches. In addition, daily-mean hazard forecasts demonstrate even greater predictive skill, which is important for conveying straightforward messages to the general public and lifeguard managers. The approach presented here only requires a limited number of beach morphology metrics and allows for the prediction of surf-zone hazards on beaches where wave and tide forecasts are available.