CPEC: A game changer in the balance of power in South Asia

Abstract

Intended as a pilot flagship project under the Chinese-led Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has received relatively positive responses from actors in and outside the South Asian region. Islamabad, New Delhi, and Washington have offered their support to the project to varying degrees, because the financial commitments made by Beijing can help narrow the substantial funding gap for regional infrastructure connectivity. Nevertheless, enduring animosity and mistrust between India and Pakistan and growing strategic competition between Beijing and Washington present the biggest challenges to the project’s sustainable progress. Although the unfolding U.S.-China competition has not tangibly affected regional cooperation, as Washington’s enthusiasm for and investment in the U.S.-led Indo-Pacific Economic Corridor (IPEC) remain low compared with China’s down payment, the potential change in the balance of power in South Asia has triggered increasing concern from and collaboration between the United States and India. By highlighting the positive-sum logic of improved infrastructure interconnection as well as greater economic integration, and contributing to a more stable geopolitical environment in South Asia, Beijing can help alleviate the longstanding enmity between India and Pakistan and assuage Washington’s and New Delhi’s skepticism about its strategic intentions.