Recent change of burned area associated with summer heat extremes over Iberia

Abstract

Owing to climate change-induced global warming, the frequency and duration of extremely hot events over the Iberian Peninsula (IP), such as heatwaves, are expected to continue to increase. This study shows the change of individual and monthly concurrent extremely hot events and burned area in the IP in the recent period of 1998-2015, compared with the reference period 1980-1997. Results show a dichotomic behaviour, with June and August showing an increase in extremely hot events and July and September showing many regions with a decrease, both in individual and concurrent events (most prominently in September). Furthermore, regions with such increases also show a change in spatial extent, with a greater area simultaneously affected by the two extremes (particularly in June). Also, even though the incidence of large burned areas decreased in north-western Spain in July and August, these increased in June. Indeed, together with more extreme heat events observed in the region, an increase in burned area was also found in June. This work paves the way for future studies to delve into the causes and effects of extreme heat events over the IP, to raise awareness of the need by forest authorities of developing early warning systems.