Prediction of cancer incidence rates for the European continent using machine learning models

Abstract

Cancer is one of the most important and common public health problems on Earth that can occur in many different types. Treatments and precautions are aimed at minimizing the deaths caused by cancer; however, incidence rates continue to rise. Thus, it is important to analyze and estimate incidence rates to support the determination of more effective precautions. In this research, 2018 Cancer Datasheet of World Health Organization (WHO), is used and all countries on the European Continent are considered to analyze and predict the incidence rates until 2020, for Lung cancer, Breast cancer, Colorectal cancer, Prostate cancer and All types of cancer, which have highest incidence and mortality rates. Each cancer type is trained by six machine learning models namely, Linear Regression, Support Vector Regression, Decision Tree, Long-Short Term Memory neural network, Backpropagation neural network, and Radial Basis Function neural network according to gender types separately. Linear regression and support vector regression outperformed the other models with the (Formula presented.) scores 0.99 and 0.98, respectively, in initial experiments, and then used for prediction of incidence rates of the considered cancer types. The ML models estimated that the maximum rise of incidence rates would be in colorectal cancer for females by 6%.