Absolute Meteorological Drought Indices Validated Against Irrigation Amounts

Abstract

Dry weather can severely limit water availability, harming agriculture and natural habitats. Several drought indices assess meteorological conditions relative to historical norms, but absolute indices, expressed in millimeters of water depth, are particularly crucial for agriculture. Every millimeter of water that a crop cannot evaporate results in an almost proportional yield loss. Using daily precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and temperature data, we calculated five absolute drought indices for a sandy area in the Netherlands. We then validated these indices against the annual registered amount of irrigation water from 2001 to 2021, which served as a proxy for the drought experienced by farmers. The cumulative potential precipitation deficit calculated with (a) a temperature sum-dependent start of the growing season or (b) a start in the wet winter season most closely matched irrigation amounts (R2 = 95% and 94%, respectively). The latter index is likely to be applicable in climates where a dry growing season follows a wet season. These indices can be updated daily, providing real-time insight into drought development and can be used in climate projections. To our knowledge, this is the first study to validate meteorological drought indices using irrigation data, which advances the assessment of drought events.