Model uncertainty in the projected Indian summer monsoon precipitation change under low-emission scenarios

Abstract

The projected ISM precipitation changes under low-emission scenarios, Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 1-2.6 (SSP1-2.6), are investigated by outputs from models participating in phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6). Based on the high-emission scenarios like RCP8.5, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report suggests a wetter Indian summer monsoon (ISM) by the end of 21st century. Although the multi-model ensemble mean (MME) ISM precipitation under RCP2.6 and SSP1-2.6 is still projected to increase over 2050-2099 referenced to 1900-1949, the intermodel spread of the ISM precipitation change is tremendous in both CMIPs. Indeed, the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of ISM precipitation change, defined as the MME divided by its intermodel standard deviation, is even below 1 under the low-emission scenarios. This casts doubts on a future wetter ISM in a warmer climate. Moisture budget analyses further show that most of the model uncertainty in ISM precipitation change is caused by its dynamical component from the atmospheric circulation change. As expected, the interhemispheric surface warming contrast is essential in causing the intermodel differences in ISM circulation and precipitation changes under low-emission scenarios. In addition, the projected wetter ISM is prominently enhanced from CMIP5 to CMIP6, along with reduced model uncertainty. However, the resultant increased SNR in CMIP6 is still low in most ISM regions. The results imply that ISM precipitation change is highly uncertain under low-emission scenarios, which greatly challenges the decisions-making in adaptation policies for the densely populated South Asian countries.