Personalized-dose covid-19 vaccination in a wave of virus variants of concern: Trading individual efficacy for societal benefit

Abstract

Limited vaccine supplies and virus variants of concern threaten to prolong the COVID-19 pandemic. The elderly dies more frequently, but the younger drives disease transmission. Here, we explore strategies that trade individual vaccine efficacy for increased numbers of vaccinations by personalized vaccine dosing during the onset of a wave of virus variants of concern. The model incorporates US demographic and epidemic data and vaccine characteristics. We find that broad, personalized-dose vaccination, trading individual efficacy for vaccination speed and societal benefit, mitigates an infection wave of highly infectious variants of concern better and overcomes the pandemic faster than conventional “elderly first” strategies. This strategy implies that on a global scale, tailoring vaccine dose and vaccination strategy to the pandemic phase and demographic characteristics may have significant potential for minimizing deaths and quickly mastering the pandemic.