Risks of mineral resources in the supply of renewable energy batteries

Abstract

Renewable energy batteries play a crucial role in the stable storage of clean energy. However, the supply risks associated with critical mineral raw materials closely related to renewable energy batteries - namely lithium, manganese, cobalt, and nickel - significantly threaten the safety and stability of these batteries. Therefore, this study selects representative factors from four aspects: resources, market, international relations, and technology, and employs the SMAA-TRI method to assess the supply risks of critical minerals required for renewable energy storage batteries. The results indicate that: (1) From 2006 to 2022, the supply risk of lithium resources for renewable energy batteries in China evolved from medium-high to high, while the risks for manganese, nickel, and cobalt resources remain within the high-risk range; (2) Predictions from the BP neural network model suggest that lithium, manganese, nickel, and cobalt would continue to be in the high-risk range over the next three years; (3) Sensitivity analysis reveals that environmental safety, resource recovery rates, substitution rates, external dependencies, and production concentration would become significant factors constraining the supply risks of renewable energy storage batteries.