The ASEAN Free Trade Agreement and Vietnam’s Trade Efficiency

Abstract

This study employs a stochastic gravity model to estimate the efficiency performance of Vietnam’s trade with its main trading partners from 1995-2015. Trade efficiency is measured as the ratio of actual trade volume to the maximum likelihood. Moreover. it analyzes the effects of both natural and man-made trade barriers on trade efficiency. The empirical results suggest that the actual trade of Vietnam appears to be much smaller than a possible efficiency level and that there is large space for further progress. Export efficiency outweighs that of import. Vietnam’s ASEAN Free Trade Agreement membership has, in general, improved the trade efficiency, whereas tariffs and domestic devaluation have impaired it. Our findings lead to the recommendation that Vietnam should join more Free Trade Agreements and break down the man-made barriers.